Postcards from SIBOS

????????Greetings from SIBOS in Toronto, Canada. While SIBOS is primarily a transactional banking conference, this year there has been a great deal of attention on capital markets in the form of regulatory developments and the transition to a new regulatory structure under Dodd Frank. What has been apparent from the first panel attended is the high degree of skepticism about regulatory developments, in particular Dodd Frank. From various conversations and panels, it is clear that the CCP vs bilateral model for OTC derivatives is still under philosophical debate and that skepticism over a global regulatory approach for industry problems is high. What is also clear is that we are, from the words on one panelist, in the middle of the river with respect to regulations and that we cannot accurately foresee what lies ahead. Celent believes that larger banks will continue to prepare for regulatory change and spend considerable funds as core strategic investment on top of funds needed for compliance purposes. These funds will allow larger banks to separate themselves from the herd and create opportunities amidst the chaos. An important implication is that smaller banks may need to cede market territory to those firms looking to make a strategic investment since the smaller firms simply cannot afford the investment required to deliver leading technology solutions to the market. Ultimately, we believe firms must not only move towards ultimate compliance but must also build business cases to create opportunities amidst great regulatory uncertainty. While Dodd Frank is a heavy subject it is very much on the minds of industry attendees at SIBOS- like it or not, its the elephant in the room.