Congratulations to Marsh McLennan for Winning the 2022 AFP Pinnacle Awards Grand Prize for Excellence in Treasury and Finance
My colleague, Colin Kerr, and I just returned for the annual AFP Conference this year held in Philadelphia, PA. As Colin mentioned in his blog, It’s all about the Cash - thoughts from AFP 2022, Celent’s parent company, Marsh McLennan (MMC), won this year’s prestigious AFP Pinnacle Award Grand Prize for Excellence in Treasury and Finance.
I wanted to share additional details about MMC’s initiative to train a machine-learning model to predict client churn, as understanding client churn is a challenge across industries.
For MMC, client churn is a critical metric for driving business that had previously been calculated through a quarterly, and sometimes even monthly, manual review process. Using several years of transactional invoice data, the model computed the client retention rate in Mexico, achieving the same or slightly better accuracy than the manual process. In addition, due to ease of computation, the model can be updated and run frequently, allowing the company to be nimbler with predicting financial outlooks and faster with decision-making. At the same time, when computing the predictions for a single client, the model not only quantifies the probability of renewal but also highlights the factors driving the prediction, e.g., product types, extent of cross-selling, an increase in commission rates, industry types, etc. By using the model, the financial planning & analysis teams spend less time doing manual work, and the client teams can proactively manage client relationships. Marsh McLennan is now migrating the model to full implementation and scaling it up to include other countries where the company has a large presence.
How does this solution build a base for continued growth?
Marsh McLennan is concurrently scaling up to include other countries starting with the USA, European, and Latin American countries. The company is also expanding its work on the R&D model to detect patterns, trends, and seasonality in client behaviors, and inject macro-economic factors such as inflation and GDP growth to project impact on the business. The company plans to run stress tests and to test its hypothesis with a “Black Swan” event to study client and industry impact.
What was the hardest challenge to overcome in this process?
There were data challenges along the way, but Marsh McLennan’s model interpretability got its business partners excited that data did not become a showstopper to the process. As a result, there was true collaboration between business and technology.
In announcing the Grand Prize, Jim Kaitz, president and CEO of AFP said, “AFP is proud to recognize Marsh McLennan with the 2022 Pinnacle Award Grand Prize. Marsh McLennan’s solution proved that emerging technology can be used to replace manual processes, ultimately freeing up teams to deliver more value to the business.”
Congratulations again to the Marsh McLennan team!