消費者金融保護局（CFPB）がどう動いても、結果は「覆水盆に返らず」

Looking at the events at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) over the past few days, it’s hard not to be reminded of the old adage: “a week is a long time in politics”. That phrase, reportedly uttered by UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson during a period of sharp turmoil in the 1960s, feels both apt and also woefully out of step with the pace of change in the modern world.

Over the weekend, it was reported that all supervision and enforcement activity by the CFPB has been put on hold, along with any pending investigations. Whether this is merely a temporary pause or the precursor to more significant or longer-term changes is not yet clear. It has naturally raised many questions for the industry.

Among the open banking community, this has heightened concerns about the implications for the Personal Financial Data Rights rule (which would implement Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act). As this was finalised in the last six months of the previous administration, most are very aware of the potential for the Congressional Review Act (a tool Congress can use to overturn certain actions by federal agencies) to pose an existential threat to the rule. A simple majority vote in the House and Senate to ‘disapprove’ of the proposal within 60 days of the new administration would see it blocked.

While this remains a possibility, it had seemed unlikely – and still does. After all, the rule received broad support from the industry and would bring the US in line with every other major developed country in creating a regulatory-driven open banking framework. However, the events of the past few days have called into question whether the Personal Financial Data Rights rule will ultimately be implemented and enforced.

Should that happen, what would it mean for the future of open banking in the US?

In short, while the development of the ecosystem would undoubtedly take a hit, the toothpaste isn’t going back in the tube. Open banking is very much here to stay in the US and, whatever happens with the Personal Financial Data Rights rule, it has already had a huge impact on the market.

From the demand side, consumer interest in sharing data with fintech apps and other services remains strong. Viewed in terms of the sheer number of customers doing this (including through screen-scraping), the US has been a global leader for years after all. More interesting has been how the discussions around Section 1033 have shifted the perspectives in the industry, and many institutions now view open banking as a genuine opportunity to sit on the other side of the value chain and enhance their own workflows and customer-facing services.

This has been clear from many of the conversations Celent has had with its US bank customers over the past year and is reinforced by the results of our latest Dimensions survey. This shows that over 25% of banks in the US report that open banking-led product innovation is one of their three leading technology investment priorities for 2025. With the first compliance deadline for the Personal Financial Data Rights rule not kicking in until 2026, this suggests many are actively planning to embrace the opportunities. However, only time will tell whether this plays out in practice should it turn out that the Personal Financial Data Rights rule will not ultimately be enforced.

At first glance, the situation looks more problematic on the supply side of the equation. When Section 1033 was being shaped, there was a strong sense in the industry that regulation was necessary for the ecosystem to move to the next stage of development. While many connections between banks and aggregators are via API, screen scraping is still very much part of the ecosystem, and coverage among smaller and mid-sized institutions remains patchy. The rule would address these issues by creating a common set of data fields available via API from all institutions, thereby delivering a (more secure) level playing field for innovation. Notably digital wallet providers would also be in scope. In the absence of a compliance mandate, it’s hard to see the ecosystem getting to this point and equally hard to see that being a disappointment to the providers of the leading digital wallets (or indeed companies that may wish to launch a similar service in the future).

However, there are also reasons to be optimistic. FDX has been selected as a standards-setting body by the CFPB and its recent changes leave it better placed than before to play a co-ordinating role in shaping what happens next. Likewise, aggregators such as Plaid, Mastercard, and Visa will find opportunities to play a bigger role in expanding connectivity and delivering value-adding services across the market.

It will also be worth watching the vendors providing core and digital banking capabilities to smaller and mid-sized banks. Enabling compliance with the rule is high on the agenda for these players, and several are also considering how to help their customers to use open banking to enhance their customer-facing propositions. Should the rule not be enforced in the end, the degree to which these vendors (and their clients) pursue open banking will also be important.

While no-one knows exactly what will come next, 1033 or not, open banking is here to stay.