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Retail Banking IT Spending Forecasts by Technology 2023-2028

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26 September 2023
Daniel Mayo
Kieran Hines

Cloud Becomes Mainstream

Key research questions

  • How much will retail banks invest in technology over the next five years?
  • Which regions will grow most rapidly?
  • What technology areas will see the strongest growth?

Abstract

While the start of the decade was defined by the pandemic, the banking industry landscape over 2022-2023 has been driven by the growth of interest rates after prolonged ultralow levels. While this has helped improve net interest income in many markets, it cause turbulence in others (notably the US) as banks readjusted to a new asset liability environment.

Combined with inflationary pressure in many markets, banks are seeing a challenging environment to win and retain customers, driving need to improve both customer experience and product/service propositions, which has driven IT spending growth despite continuing cost pressures.

IT spending in 2022 continued, the bounceback seen in 2021, with global spending expanding 4.3%. IT spending is now expected to see a similar increase to reach $261.3bn in 2023. This follows the immediate post-pandemic trend, but is lower than initially envisioned at the start of the year, impacted by lower IT spend growth by tier 2 and tier 3 US banks.

Leveraging primary insight from Celent's IT Technology Insights Strategy Survey, this report presents the outlook for technology spending by retail banks up to 2028, highlighting key findings from Celent's Banking IT Spending Forecast Model 2023-2028. The scope covered is IT spending by technology type, looking at how retail banks are spending on their internal IT workforce, infrastructure, applications, services, with a new breakout this year covering cloud spending. The report analyses at global and regional trends.

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