Noncash Payments: Global Trends and Forecasts, 2014 Edition

by Gareth Lodge, December 3, 2014
Industry Trends
Global

Abstract

Celent estimates that there were 345.7 billion noncash transactions in 2013, and the number is expected to rise to 411.2 billion by 2017. Checks continue their downward cycle, and debit cards are consolidating their position as second only to cash.

In the report Noncash Payments: Global Trends and Forecasts, Celent summarizes the payment statistics it tracks from over 120 countries, by both payment type and region.

“Two clear trends stand out,” says Gareth Lodge, a senior analyst with Celent’s Banking group and author of the report. “First, debit cards are by far the most popular payment type. Their numbers are even increasing. Remember, many of the so-called competitor products such as Apple Pay or PayPal actually initiate a debit card transaction. Rather than cannibalizing growth as some predicted, they look to be contributing to it.”

“The second key trend is that checks are dying out rapidly across the world, with an 11.2% CAGR reduction across the period examined,” Lodge adds. “We believe the death of checks is imminent in some countries, but in others it isn’t likely. For example, in 2013 the US wrote nearly 60% of all checks. That’s proving to be a tough habit to break.”

The report also shows that there is a third trend: emerging markets are growing at an amazing pace. For example, the BRIC countries alone accounted for nearly 15% of all growth in volume between 2012 and 2013. The report expects these countries, in addition to the Asia-Pacific region in general, to be the markets to watch in terms of growth.

This report is based on Celent’s Global Payments Database, which combines original research by Celent analysts and some publicly available data (which often differs from source to source). The data is then analyzed and interpreted by Celent to create a unique, rich resource. Having studied payment systems in over 100 countries, we understand the challenges of comparing apples with apples. The Global Payments Database also includes data on many other aspects of payments, from the regulatory environment to numbers of mobile phone subscriptions to numbers of ATMs.

Celent is a research and advisory firm dedicated to helping financial institutions formulate comprehensive business and technology strategies. Celent publishes reports identifying trends and best practices in financial services technology and conducts consulting engagements for financial institutions looking to use technology to enhance existing business processes or launch new business strategies. With a team of internationally based analysts, Celent is uniquely positioned to offer strategic advice and market insights on a global basis. Celent is a member of the Oliver Wyman Group, which is a wholly-owned operating unit of Marsh & McLennan Companies [NYSE: MMC].

Media Contacts

North America
Michele Pace
mpace@celent.com
Tel: +1 212 345 1366

Europe (London)
Chris Williams
cwilliams@celent.com
Tel: +44 (0)782 448 3336

Asia (Tokyo)
Yumi Nagaoka
ynagaoka@celent.com
Tel.: +81 3 3500 3023

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1

 

The Numbers

1

 

Three Global Key Trends

1

The Celent Global Payments Database

3

 

What Does the Database Contain?

3

 

What Does the Database Not Contain?

5

 

Methodology and Approach

5

 

Changes Since the Last Report

6

The Big Picture in 2013

8

 

Regional Variations Persist

12

 

Three Trends to Note

12

Checks

14

Credit Transfers

17

Direct Debits

20

Credit Cards

22

Debit Cards

25

Future Trends May Alter the Makeup of Payments Markets

27

 

Payment Aggregators

27

 

Using Banks, But Not Payments

28

 

Outside of Banking Altogether

28

The Path Forward

30

Appendix

32

Leveraging Celent’s Expertise

33

 

Support for Financial Institutions

33

 

Support for Vendors

33

Related Celent Research

34

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