The Evolution of Equities Market Structure in Asia-Pacific

by David Easthope, February 11, 2010
Industry Trends
Asia-Pacific

Abstract

Market participants that expect the Asia-Pacific equities markets to resemble US and European market structure, even in the next few years, are likely to be disappointed. Ultimately, firms that can customize to the local markets and have sufficient capital and patience to wait out evolutionary trends will see potential upside in Asia-Pacific opportunities.

Asia-Pacific equities market structure and trading developments are still three to five years behind the maturity of the US trading landscape, as well as several years behind post-MiFID Europe. Unlike the US and European markets, where Regulation NMS and MiFID spurred innovation and fragmentation, however, there is no uniform catalyst to spur regulatory change in the Asian equities markets. Country-specific factors like regulatory restrictions on investor IDs, stamp tax and multiple currencies, and significant retail trading act as market structure barriers and limit the penetration of advanced trading, including high frequency trading (HFT), into individual markets.

For 2010-2012, Celent foresees a period of limited disruption for Asia-Pacific in terms of new venues and matching systems, resulting in relatively low fragmentation, according to a new report, The Evolution of Equities Market Structure in Asia-Pacific. Off-exchange crossing volumes should grow to 4.7% of total regional trading volumes in 2012, up from 1.1% in 2009. In tandem with a subdued view of industry fragmentation and disruption, Celent is optimistic for the health of Asian exchanges and predicts high trading volumes of 20–30% growth per annum.

"Increases in buy side trading sophistication will gradually support advanced trading strategies, including some HFT," says Neil Katkov, Senior Vice President, Asia, at Celent and coauthor of the report. “Greater utilization of advanced order types and trading tools like algorithms and smart order routing will expand in the region, but certainly not to the extent of US and European markets.”

“The transfer of advanced trading technology to brokerages and increased rates of buy side adoption of electronic trading and trading tools like algorithms, smart order routing (SOR), direct market access (DMA), and trading analytics mean that Asian markets will be transformed to favor firms who are ahead of the curve in adopting leading-edge technology,” adds David Easthope, Research Director for Celent’s Capital Markets Group and coauthor of the report.

"The markets most likely to see the greatest change in 2010 and 2011 are Japan and Australia, due to significant reforms of market structure,” adds Chermaine Lee, Celent Analyst and coauthor of the report. “Advanced trading strategies should expand in Australia in 2010-2011. ATS market share should also grow in both of these markets.”

Celent is a research and advisory firm dedicated to helping financial institutions formulate comprehensive business and technology strategies. Celent publishes reports identifying trends and best practices in financial services technology and conducts consulting engagements for financial institutions looking to use technology to enhance existing business processes or launch new business strategies. With a team of internationally based analysts, Celent is uniquely positioned to offer strategic advice and market insights on a global basis. Celent is a member of the Oliver Wyman Group, which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies [NYSE: MMC].

Media Contacts

North America
Michele Pace
mpace@celent.com
Tel: +1 212 345 1366

Europe (London)
Chris Williams
cwilliams@celent.com
Tel: +44 (0)782 448 3336

Asia (Tokyo)
Yumi Nagaoka
ynagaoka@celent.com
Tel.: +81 3 3500 3023

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

3

Introduction

6

Asian Equities Market Structure Evolution and Predictions

7

 

Comparative Regional Market Evaluations

7

 

Market Structure Drivers

11

 

Regulatory Developments

11

 

Technology

13

 

Market Innovations Evolve the Structure

16

 

Market Structure Barriers

23

Asian Equities Markets Scenarios 2009-2012

27

 

Market Scenario IV: Most Probable

28

 

Low Industry Disruption: Fragmentation

28

 

Exchange Evolution to Be Gradual: Partnerships Vs. M&As

38

 

Local Vs. Regional Evolution

40

 

Low Industry Disruption: Execution

42

 

Brokerages

42

 

High Volume Growth

53

 

Summary Table

55

Summary of Winners and Losers as Industry Transforms

56

 

Winners

56

 

Losers

58

Conclusions

60

Leveraging Celent’s Expertise

61

 

Support for Financial Institutions

61

 

Support for Vendors

61

Related Celent Research

62

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